The global peak

The key to understanding what is going to happen to us is contained in the concept of peak global oil production. And 'the point at which we have extracted half of all oil in the world, half as easy to get, half reached the most economically, half of best quality and less expensive to refine.  
The remaining oil is what is prohibitive in places not readily accessible, such as the Arctic and the deep ocean.Much of the remaining half is difficult to remove and may require, in fact, so much energy to remove it as not worth it, if, for example, it takes a barrel of oil for a barrel of oil, it would be useless. If it takes two barrels of oil to get one, it would even insane. Much of the remaining half is in the form of crude oil with high sulfur content, difficult to refine, or tar sands and shale, which are not liquid but solid to be excavated and then liquefied to be refined by adding two more items to costs for their recovery. A considerable portion of the remaining half of the world's oil supplies original will never be recovered.Go past the peak of oil production means that all the nations of the earth will never again put together from the ground to extract as much oil as it mined at its peak, whatever the question. This has extraordinary implications for the industrial civilization based on oil, based on the expansion of all regular and consistent: population, gross domestic product, sales, profits, new housing, and so on and so forth. The passing of peak oil production is an unprecedented economic crisis that will radically alter national economies, topple governments, will alter the national borders, will result in military conflict and jeopardize the continuation of civilized life. At the time of the peak of the human race will have generated a population unable to survive on less than the amount of oil produced in that time ... and once past that point the supply of oil will decline inexorably. When that happens, complex social systems and the market will be encouraged to the point of failure, eliminating the possibility of a painless drop down from the peak.
The best information we have tells us that we pass the peak of world oil production between 2000 and 2008. The date is incorrect for several reasons. One is that the reserves (oil that still remains in the ground) reported by the private sector and nationalized oil companies tend to be generally overestimated, want to encourage stock quotes or to obtain advantages for export quotas on international markets, as in the case of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).Another reason is that the "turning point" tends to occur in several years of market swings, a period of instability with recurrent shocks in prices and subsequent recession, which depressed demand and prices, a prelude to a fatal decline. Therefore the peak you will recognize only a "mirror" once the decline started fatal. The signs of continued instability in the market, therefore, tend to suggest the attainment of the peak, which will not be shown, however, if in hindsight.In other words, the peak may appear as a kind of stagnation or excess on the availability of outputs that will last a few years, while the economic stagnation (that is, the lack of growth) will reduce demand. During this period of deferral, the markets could make use of allocation strategies to continue to supply the best customers (industrialized) nations at the expense of "losers" short of cash (once called "developing nations", but that much likely to become "nations destined to never develop"). Then, slowly at first and then accelerating, world oil production will decline, economies and markets around the world show an increasing volatility, with larger and larger fluctuations than the previous peak standards , and we will enter a new era of austerity previously unimaginable. These courses are irreversible.
How could such a catastrophe is imminent and well educated and civilized people in free countries with free media and transparent institutions are so uninformed about this? No one who sees conspiracies everywhere. Although they occurred in history, the conspiracies are, almost invariably, be very small and limited to small circles of individuals.Humans are not very good at keeping secrets, individual self-interest is not interchangeable with the interest group and the two often conflict, especially among the conspirators handpieces. I do not think that the next general ignorance about the catastrophic end of the era of cheap oil is the product of a conspiracy, by entrepreneurs, government or media. And 'largely a matter of cultural inertia, aggravated by a collective illusion and raised in the midst of comfort and culture of complacency. The writer Erik Davis called it the "consensus trance".If anything, we think, most Westerners seem to believe that oil is superabbondante, if not unlimited. We believe that the world is full of huge amounts of undiscovered oil fields and that the "new technologies" drilling and extraction would work wonders in prolonging the life of existing fields. For many of us, even the best informed, the reflection stops here. The oil companies know it long, but they also know that the bad news cause harm to the business and since there are no ready-made substitutes for oil have decided to go easy on the information about the achievement of the global peak. Or show up smiling and optimistic. The British Petroleurn (BP) has been renamed "Beyond Petroleum" (beyond petroleum) to earn some points in the ranking of social responsibility without actually change anything he does.